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On April 6, Bitcoin price formed a death cross on a daily chart — a technical pattern where the 50-day moving average (MA) falls below the 200-day MA. Historically associated with trend reversals and long bearish trading periods, this ominous signal has sometimes preceded major market drawdowns.<\/p>\n
The latest death cross comes amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty. Equities are reeling from what appears to be the early stages of a tariff war, volatility is rising, and fear continues to dominate investor sentiment. For some investors, Bitcoin’s death cross could be the final blow to hopes of a near-term rally. Early signs of capitulation<\/a> from short-term holders may already be emerging.<\/p>\n Still, not everyone sees doom ahead.<\/p>\n By definition, a death cross confirms the end of a bullish phase. When the 50-day MA drops below the 200-day MA, it suggests recent price action has weakened relative to the longer-term trend. Its counterpart, the golden cross, occurs when the opposite happens — often heralding a new rally.<\/p>\n Since its inception, Bitcoin has experienced 10 such death crosses, with the 11th unfolding right now. Analyzing their dates and durations gives a major insight: every bear market included a death cross, but not every death cross has led to a bear market. This distinction is key to understanding the current setup.<\/p>\n BTC\/USD 1-day death cross history (log). Source: Marie Poteriaieva, TradingView<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Indeed, there are two types of death crosses: those that happen during bear markets and the rest. The three death crosses that formed during the bear markets of 2014-2015, 2018, and 2022 were long and painful. They lasted for 9 to 13 months and saw drawdowns between 55% and 68% from the day of the cross to the cycle bottom.<\/p>\n The remaining seven were far less severe. They lasted from 1.5 months to 3.5 months and saw Bitcoin decline anywhere from 27% to nothing at all. In many cases, these signals marked local bottoms and were followed by renewed rallies.<\/p>\n This brings us to the critical question: Is Bitcoin already in a bear market, or is this another bear trap?<\/p>\n If Bitcoin is indeed in bear territory, as CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes<\/a>, the current death cross could signal 6 to 12 more months of downward price action. This outlook aligns with his observations of the difference between the current market cap and the realized cap (average cost basis for each wallet x amount of BTC held).<\/p>\n “If Realized Cap is growing, but Market Cap is stagnant or falling, it means capital is flowing in, but prices aren’t rising—a classic bearish signal.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Current data clearly points to the latter, Ki Young Ju adds.<\/p>\n “Sell pressure could ease anytime, but historically, real reversals take at least six months—so a short-term rally seems unlikely.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n BTC growth rate difference. Source: CryptoQuant<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Other market participants disregard the presence of the death cross. Crypto analyst Mister Crypto argued that the current death cross is a setup for a rally rather than a slide. “The trap is set again. This will be the most hated rally of 2025!” he posted<\/a> alongside a chart showing previous false signals of this cycle.<\/p>\n Bitcoin death cross during the bull market. Source: Mister Crypto<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n CoinShares head of research James Butterfill also downplayed the signal’s significance. As he put it<\/a>, <\/p>\n “For those of you that think the Bitcoin death cross means anything – empirically, it’s total nonsense, and in fact, often a good buying opportunity.” <\/p><\/blockquote>\n Butterfill’s data shows that, on average, Bitcoin prices are only slightly lower one month after a death cross (-3.2%) and often higher three months out.<\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Trump tariffs reignite idea that Bitcoin could outlast US dollar<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n Interestingly, Bitcoin isn’t the only asset flashing warning signs. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are both on the verge of forming their own death crosses, while individual tech stocks — including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Alphabet — have already triggered them or are close to doing so. <\/p>\n Bitcoin’s recent move is part of a larger market reset, for better or for worse. At the moment, however, it leans more toward the “worse” side: as some analysts point out<\/a>, what’s bad for the Nasdaq tends to be bad for Bitcoin, too. Unless, of course, Bitcoin fully claims its role as digital gold<\/a>.<\/p>\n This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" On April 6, Bitcoin price formed a death cross on a daily chart — a technical pattern where the 50-day moving average (MA) falls below the 200-day MA. Historically associated<\/p>\nBitcoin death crosses history<\/h2>\n
A bearish signal?<\/h2>\n