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Bitcoin (BTC<\/a>) remains under pressure as macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on its price action. After making a strong bounce from the local bottom near $75,000 on April 7 and 9, analysts are beginning to question whether BTC could be gearing up for a reversal of the downward trend that’s persisted since the start of the year.<\/p>\n For some, like the veteran trader Peter Brandt, this trendline is nothing but hopium. As he noted<\/a> in his X post,<\/p>\n “Of all chart construction, trendlines are the LEAST significant. A trendline violation does NOT signify a transition of the BTC trend. Sorry.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Others, however, see more reason for cautious optimism. Analyst Kevin Svenson highlighted<\/a> a possible weekly RSI breakout, pointing out that “Once confirmed, weekly RSI breakout signals have proven to be among the most reliable macro breakout indicators.” <\/p>\n Ultimately, price is driven by supply and demand—and while both sides of the equation are beginning to show subtle signs of recovery, they are yet to reach the levels needed for a proper breakout. Furthermore, the bulls must cut through a dense sell wall near $86,000 to confirm the reversal. <\/p>\n According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s apparent demand <\/a>— measured by the 30-day net difference between exchange inflows and outflows — is showing early signs of recovery after a sustained dip into negative territory.<\/p>\n However, the analysts caution against prematurely declaring a trend reversal. Looking back to the 2021 cycle peak, similar conditions occurred: demand remained low or negative for months, prices temporarily stabilized or rebounded, and true structural recovery only followed extended consolidation. <\/p>\n This current uptick in demand may simply mark a pause in selling pressure—not a definitive bottom sign. Time and confirmation are still needed to confirm a shifting momentum.<\/p>\n From a trader’s perspective, the apparent demand metric does not look optimistic just yet. Bitcoin daily trade volumes currently hover around 30,000 BTC (spot) and 400,000 BTC (derivatives), according to CryptoQuant<\/a>. This is, respectively, 6x and 3x less compared to the June-July 2021 period that preceded the last bull run of the 2019-2022 cycle. Despite hopeful comparisons of the current price dip to that period, current volume dynamics suggest a more subdued trader appetite.<\/p>\n Institutional investors confirm the low demand trend. Since April 3, the spot BTC ETFs<\/a> have recorded continuous outflows totaling over $870 million, with the first modest inflow not occurring until April 15. Despite this, trading volumes remain relatively high — only 18% below the 30-day average — indicating that some investor appetite for Bitcoin persists.<\/p>\n Related<\/strong><\/em>: Crypto in a bear market, rebound likely in Q3 — Coinbase<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n On the supply side, liquidity remains weak. According to Glassnode’s recent report<\/a>, the realized cap growth has slowed to 0.80% per month (from 0.83% previously). This points to a continued lack of meaningful new capital entering the Bitcoin network and, as Glassnode notes, “remains well below typical bull market thresholds.”<\/p>\n Furthermore, the BTC balance<\/a> on exchanges — often used to gauge available sell-side liquidity — has dropped to just 2.6 million BTC, the lowest level since November 2018.<\/p>\n Yet, on a broader macroeconomic level, some analysts see reasons for cautious hope. Independent market analyst Michael van de Poppe pointed out<\/a> the quickly rising M2 Supply, which, with a certain lag (here 12 weeks), has often influenced Bitcoin price in the past.<\/p>\n “If the correlation remains, he wrote, then I assume that we’ll see Bitcoin rally to an ATH in this quarter. This would also imply a rise in CNH\/USD, a fall in Yields, a fall in Gold, a fall in DXY, and a rise in Altcoins.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Even if bullish momentum and demand returns, Bitcoin will need to clear a critical resistance zone between $86,300 and $86,500, as shown on CoinGlass<\/a>’ liquidity heatmap, which maps dense clusters of buy and sell orders at different levels.<\/p>\n Alphractal adds<\/a> another layer of insight through its Alpha Price Chart, which incorporates realized cap, average cap, and onchain sentiment — and comes to the same conclusion. According to the chart, BTC must decisively break above $86,300 to restore short-term bullish sentiment. If the price weakens again, support levels lie at $73,900 and $64,700.<\/p>\n Overall, calling a trend reversal at this stage may be premature. Liquidity remains thin, macroeconomic headwinds persist, and investors remain cautious. Still, Bitcoin’s resilience above $80,000 signals strong support from long-term holders. A decisive breakout above $86,300 could shift market sentiment—and, in a best-case scenario, ignite a new rally. For such a move to be meaningful, however, it must be backed by spot market volume<\/a>, not just leverage-driven activity.<\/p>\n This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure as macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on its price action. After making a strong bounce from the local bottom near $75,000 on April 7 and<\/p>\nBitcoin demand — Are there early signs of recovery?<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin supply — Will liquidity return?<\/h2>\n