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Bitcoin’s (BTC<\/a>) four-year cycle<\/a>, anchored around its halving events, is widely recognized as a key factor in BTC’s year-over-year price growth. Within this larger framework, traders have come to expect distinct phases: accumulation, parabolic rallies, and eventual crashes. <\/p>\n Throughout the four-year period, shorter-duration cycles also emerge, often driven by shifts in market sentiment and the behavior of long- and short-term holders. These cycles, shaped by the psychological patterns of market participants, can provide insights into Bitcoin’s next moves.<\/p>\n Long-term Bitcoin holders — those holding for three to five years — are often considered the most seasoned participants. Typically wealthier and more experienced, they can weather extended bear markets and tend to sell near local tops. <\/p>\n According to recent data<\/a> from Glassnode, long-term holders distributed over 2 million BTC in two distinct waves during the current cycle. Both waves were followed by strong reaccumulation, which helped absorb sell-side pressure and contributed to a more stable price structure. Currently, long-term Bitcoin holders are in the new accumulation period. Since mid-February, this cohort’s wealth increased sharply by almost 363,000 BTC.<\/p>\n Total BTC supply held by long-term holders. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Another cohort of Bitcoin holders often seen as more seasoned than the average market participant are whales—addresses holding over 1,000 BTC. Many of them are also long-term holders. At the top of this group are the mega-whales holding more than 10,000 BTC. Currently, there are 93 such addresses, according to BitInfoCharts<\/a>, and their recent activity points to ongoing accumulation.<\/p>\n Glassnode<\/a> data shows that large whales briefly reached a perfect accumulation score (~1.0) in early April, indicating intense buying over a 15-day period. The score has since eased to ~0.65 but still reflects consistent accumulation. These large holders appear to be buying from smaller cohorts—specifically wallets with less than 1 BTC and those with under 100 BTC—whose accumulation scores have dipped toward 0.1–0.2. <\/p>\n This divergence signals growing distribution from retail to large holders and marks potential for future price support (whales tend to hold long-time). Oftentimes, it also precedes bullish periods.<\/p>\n The last time mega-whales hit a perfect accumulation score was in August 2024, when Bitcoin was trading near $60,000. Two months later, BTC raced to $108,000.<\/p>\n BTC trend accumulation score by cohort. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Short-term holders, usually defined as those holding BTC for 3 to 6 months, behave differently. They’re more prone to selling during corrections or periods of uncertainty. <\/p>\n This behavior also follows a pattern. Glassnode data shows that spending levels tend to rise and fall approximately every 8 to 12 months. <\/p>\n Currently, short-term holders’ spending activity is at a historically low point despite the turbulent macro environment. This suggests that so far, many newer Bitcoin buyers are choosing to hold rather than panic-sell. However, if the Bitcoin price drops further, short-term holders may be the first to sell, potentially accelerating the decline.<\/p>\n BTC short-term holders’ spending activity. Source: Glassnode<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Markets are driven by people. Emotions like fear, greed, denial, and euphoria don’t just influence individual decisions — they shape entire market moves. This is why we often see familiar patterns: bubbles inflate as greed takes hold, then collapse under the weight of panic selling. <\/p>\nBitcoin whales eat as markets retreat<\/h2>\n
Short-term holders are heavily impacted by market sentiment<\/h2>\n