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A key Bitcoin (BTC)<\/a> metric signaled a potential shift in its positioning after BTC’s long-term holder realized cap (LTH Realized Cap) surpassed $18 billion for the first time since September 2024. Data from CryptoQuant indicated<\/a> that this cohort has exhibited aggressive accumulation, which previously marked the BTC bottom in Q3 2024. <\/p>\n The LTH realized cap measures the BTC cost basis of investors, holding their allocation for 155 days or more. A sharp increase hints that these long-term holders are in an accumulation phase, parallel with bullish behavior. <\/p>\n Bitcoin LTH net position realized cap. Source: CryptoQuant<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n As illustrated in the chart, a spike in this metric has preceded bullish rallies in the past. Most recently, the LTH realized cap reached $18 billion on Sept. 8, 2024, after which Bitcoin registered 100% returns over the next few months. <\/p>\n Another key confluence that matches the current bottom setup with September 2024 is the significant drop in open interest. BTC’s OI reached an all-time high of $39 billion in July but dropped by 25% by September. Similarly, Bitcoin’s open interest dropped<\/a> 28% between Dec. 18 and April 8, <\/p>\n Bitcoin open interest. Source: CoinGlass<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n The concurrent rise in LTH Realized Cap and a leverage wipeout strongly support the likelihood of a Bitcoin price bottom. However, Bitcoin’s open interest has surged by nearly 10% in the past 24 hours, suggesting that the price action following this spike could offer better directional bias in the coming days. <\/p>\n Related: Bitcoiners’ ‘bullish impulse’ on recession may be premature: 10x Research<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n After forming a new yearly low at $74,500 on April 7- April 9, BTC prices have rallied by almost 10% over the past three days. With respect to price levels below the $80,00 level, Glassnode data revealed<\/a> that BTC had established credible support at the $79,000. In an X post, the data analytics platform mentioned, <\/p>\n “Looking at Cost Basis Distribution, Bitcoin has built notable support at $79K, with ~40K BTC accumulated there. It has also worked through the $82.08K cluster (~51K BTC).”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Bitcoin heatmap based on cost basis distribution. Source: X.com<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n As illustrated in the April 6- April 11 heatmap, supply distribution highlights investor accumulation patterns. This follows Bitcoin’s rally past $81,000, spurred by a 2.4% US CPI rate and President Trump’s 90-day tariff pause, with market sentiment leaning toward cautious optimism for a relief rally. <\/p>\n Likewise, anonymous technical analyst Cold Blooded Shiller noted <\/a>a descending trendline for Bitcoin, with BTC price testing a potential bullish breakout. The analyst said, <\/p>\n “Got to admit, that’s looking very enticing for BTC.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Bitcoin 1-day chart analysis by Cold Blooded Shiller. Source: X.com<\/em><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\nBitcoin builds support at $79K<\/h2>\n
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