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Key Takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n US GDP shrank -0.3% in Q1, far below +0.3% forecasts, sparking recession fears.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Bitcoin faces selling pressure with its spot volume delta dropping $300 million in 3 days.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n Whales are accumulating BTC, but smaller holders are selling, hinting at profit-taking.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n Bitcoin’s (BTC) <\/a>price dropped under $93,000 on April 30, after the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data revealed a -0.3% contraction in Q1. While the GDP missed expectations of +0.3%, the GDP Price Index soared to 3.7%—the highest since August 2023. Polymarket odds of a recession in 2025<\/a> hit 67%, with consumer confidence at its lowest since May 2020.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, in March 2025, PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation fell to 2.3% (above the expected 2.2%), and Core PCE dropped to 2.6% (in line with expectations). Still, February’s Core PCE was revised from 2.8% to 3.0%, signaling mixed inflation trends.<\/p>\n During the 2020 COVID-19-induced market crash, BTC initially followed traditional markets before rallying over 300% by year-end as the global M2 money supply increased, reflecting its appeal during periods of monetary expansion. However, stagflation, highlighted by the -0.3% GDP contraction in Q1 2025 and a 3.7% GDP Price Index, pose short-term risks. <\/p>\n Cointelegraph noted<\/a> that high inflation often deters retail crypto investment, as seen in 2022 when BTC fell 60% amid Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The March 2025 PCE inflation data suggests cooling pressures that could ease Fed rate hike fears and support Bitcoin. <\/p>\n On the other hand, February’s upward revisions<\/a> (headline PCE from 2.5% to 2.7%, Core PCE to 3.0%) signal persistent inflation, keeping the Fed’s next moves uncertain. While fear of stagflation may pressure BTC in the short term, its long-term hedge potential remains valid. <\/p>\n Related: Bitcoin macro indicator that predicted 2022 bottom flashes ‘buy signal’<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n Bitcoin’s spot volume delta dipped over $300 million over the past three days, increasing potential sell-off pressure for BTC around the $95,000 level. <\/p>\n Data from Glassnode indicates<\/a> the 7-day moving average of BTC spot volume delta recorded negative flows over consecutive days. The negative inflows progressively increased with a minor $16 million flush on April 26, followed by $30.9 million on April 27, $76.1 million on April 28, and $193.4 million on April 29.<\/p>\n This sharp decline signals aggressive selling and weakening spot demand, a signal to profit-taking or a potential short-term trend reversal. Despite the sell-off, the analytics platform noted that<\/a> accumulation trends among Bitcoin holders paint a more nuanced picture. Whales holding over 10,000 BTC remain in an accumulation mode, with a trend score near 0.95. <\/p>\n However, smaller holders show signs of distribution. The 10–100 BTC group is trending toward 0.6, while those with 1–10 BTC (0.3) and less than 1 BTC (0.2) are net sellers. <\/p>\n This top-down accumulation suggests the current selling pressure stems from short-term holders potentially taking profit around the $95,000 level. Termed as a “profit-taking pressure test”<\/a> for BTC, the current market is at a key decision point, where profit-taking is a pivotal metric to monitor. <\/p>\n Last week, the total realized profit on an hourly chart surged to $139.9M\/hour, roughly 17% above its $120M\/hour baseline. With the current spot delta outflows, the realized profit may hit new highs this week. <\/p>\n\n
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Short-term bearish, long-term bullish for Bitcoin?<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin sees $300 million in spot selling pressure<\/h2>\n
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