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Bitcoin’s (BTC<\/a>) value relative to gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.<\/p>\n As of April 22, the BTC\/XAU ratio<\/a> had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.<\/p>\n Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).<\/p>\n For instance, in both 2021 and 2022, BTC\/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.<\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC\/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.<\/p>\n Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers<\/a> a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.<\/p>\n “What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:<\/p>\n “The Bitcoin\/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n “Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities<\/a> may remain downward for now.<\/p>\n That is in contrast to the ongoing decoupling narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks<\/a>.<\/p>\n Weakness in the BTC\/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.<\/p>\n This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC\/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.<\/p>\n The pattern also repeated in earlier cycles, namely the 2019-2020 and 2018-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.<\/p>\n If the historical correlation between BTC\/XAU and BTC\/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.<\/p>\n This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.<\/p>\n Bitcoin’s (BTC<\/a>) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.<\/p>\n As of April 22, the BTC\/XAU ratio<\/a> had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.<\/p>\n Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).<\/p>\n In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC\/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.<\/p>\n This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC\/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.<\/p>\n Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers<\/a> a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.<\/p>\n “What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:<\/p>\n “The Bitcoin\/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n “Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities<\/a> may remain downward for now.<\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks<\/a>.<\/p>\n Weakness in the BTC\/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.<\/p>\n This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC\/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.<\/p>\n The pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.<\/p>\n If the historical correlation between BTC\/XAU and BTC\/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.<\/p>\n This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.<\/p>\n Bitcoin’s (BTC<\/a>) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.<\/p>\n As of April 22, the BTC\/XAU ratio<\/a> had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.<\/p>\n Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).<\/p>\n In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC\/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.<\/p>\n This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC\/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.<\/p>\n Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers<\/a> a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.<\/p>\n “What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:<\/p>\n “The Bitcoin\/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n “Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities<\/a> may remain downward for now.<\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks<\/a>.<\/p>\n Weakness in the BTC\/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.<\/p>\n This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC\/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.<\/p>\n The pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.<\/p>\n If the historical correlation between BTC\/XAU and BTC\/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.<\/p>\n This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.<\/p>\n Bitcoin’s (BTC<\/a>) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.<\/p>\n As of April 22, the BTC\/XAU ratio<\/a> had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.<\/p>\n Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).<\/p>\n In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC\/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.<\/p>\n This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC\/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.<\/p>\n Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers<\/a> a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.<\/p>\n “What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:<\/p>\n “The Bitcoin\/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n “Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities<\/a> may remain downward for now.<\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks<\/a>.<\/p>\n Weakness in the BTC\/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.<\/p>\n This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC\/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.<\/p>\n The pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.<\/p>\n If the historical correlation between BTC\/XAU and BTC\/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.<\/p>\n This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.<\/p>\n Bitcoin’s (BTC<\/a>) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.<\/p>\n As of April 22, the BTC\/XAU ratio<\/a> had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.<\/p>\n Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).<\/p>\n In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC\/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.<\/p>\n This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC\/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.<\/p>\n Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers<\/a> a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.<\/p>\n “What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:<\/p>\n “The Bitcoin\/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n “Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities<\/a> may remain downward for now.<\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks<\/a>.<\/p>\n Weakness in the BTC\/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.<\/p>\n This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC\/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.<\/p>\n The pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.<\/p>\n If the historical correlation between BTC\/XAU and BTC\/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.<\/p>\n This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.<\/p>\n Bitcoin’s (BTC<\/a>) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.<\/p>\n As of April 22, the BTC\/XAU ratio<\/a> had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.<\/p>\n Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).<\/p>\n In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC\/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.<\/p>\n This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC\/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.<\/p>\n Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers<\/a> a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.<\/p>\n “What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:<\/p>\n “The Bitcoin\/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n “Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities<\/a> may remain downward for now.<\/p>\n Related: <\/strong><\/em>Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\nBitcoin’s breaks below key gold support<\/h2>\n
![\"Bitcoin-to-gold](\"http:\/\/www.thebusinesschain.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/01965d93-2a4d-7a99-a0d0-ea0361c98d2a-scaled.jpg\" "\\"\\"")
BTC vs gold breakdowns are historically bearish<\/h2>\n
![\"Bitcoin-to-gold](\"http:\/\/www.thebusinesschain.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/01965db4-6956-7b5f-81c3-c5ff54b89be9-scaled.jpg\" "\\"\\"")
![\"Bitcoin-to-gold](\"http:\/\/www.thebusinesschain.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/01965dc9-f5b3-7855-9808-1072f6f21b24-scaled.jpg\" "\\"\\"")
Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffs<\/h2>\n
BTC\/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC\/USD<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffs<\/h2>\n
BTC\/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC\/USD<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffs<\/h2>\n
BTC\/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC\/USD<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffs<\/h2>\n
BTC\/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC\/USD<\/h2>\n
Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffs<\/h2>\n